Boy vs Bird who will win?

I’ve been a bad film fan this year.  I haven’t made it to all the Best Picture nominees, which is the very least I could do in the name of objectivity, but I still want to see if that changes how I think the whole shebang will turn out.

On #Oscarssowhite, Ava DuVernay was a not surprising (given the make up of the Oscars voters) but a disappointing omission. As Selma points out, if you aren’t able to have a voice to vote, how will that voice be heard?  That said I don’t think she was the Best Director so I hope she keeps making films the academy can’t ignore and gets the recognition she deserves.  I am equally annoyed that Mike Leigh, Damien Chazelle and Amma Asante weren’t nominated, but hey I love Iñárritu & Linklater.  The weakest director in this category is The Imintation Game’s Morten Tyldum (although I loved the film- he’d make my top 10) but didn’t effect me nearly as much as Belle, Whiplash, Selma or Mike Leigh every time he makes a film.

This is less informed than I’d like, however my final predictions are:

Category Seen  Of Will Win Should Win
Best Picture  7  8  Boyhood – I am flipflopping bewteen this and Birdman but I think that the pure innovation of Linklater’s idea and scope of the film will win out over Birdman’s creativity and intensity. Whiplash. Whilst I thought both lead characters were irredeemably psychotic, I do see that they had a passion about something that wiped every sense of decency out of them.  It was an interesting balance and i perversely enjoyed watching the car wreck(!) Andrew’s life became.
Best Actor 3 5 Eddie Redmayne- The Theory of Everything Timothy Spall/ Miles Teller – although if Steve Carell pulled this off I’d win a nice bit of cash!
Best Actress 2 5 Julianne Moore, Still Alice Due to UK release dates, I haven’t seen enough of these all fine actresses and love that a fellow Brummie Felicity Jones was nominated
Best Supporting Actor 3  5  J.K. Simmons, Whiplash  JKS – Gripping!
Best Supporting Actress 3 5 Patricia Arquette, Boyhood  You’re so cool!
Best Director 4 5 Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman  I think, maybe, also the Director’s Guild gave it to him so I think he’ll beat Richard Linklater to this one.
Best Adapted Screenplay 3 5 Inherent Vice I find the screenplay race incredibly difficult to judge, but of the one’s I’ve seen would be happy with any winner.  I went with Inherent Vice just because I like that it’s a comedy.
Best Original Screenplay 3 5 Wes Anderson- The Grand Budapest Hotel The product of several coin tosses. Although I think maybe Boyhood will get it.
Best Foreign Film  0 5  Ida,Poland  I have disgracefully seen none of them, basing this entirely on the reviews of friends.
Best Documentary Feature 1 5  CitizenFour As with Best Foreign Film, I fully intend to catch up on these.
Best Animated Feature  0 5 Song of The Sea Looked at the trailers – this is the one I wanted to see most. In another note Everything is NOT awesome.
Film Editing 4 5 The Grand Budapest Hotel  It was between Whiplash and The Grand Budapest Hotel for me.
Best Song 2 5  Glory I thing that although Every Thing is Awesome was fantastically singable, Glory sits so beautifully with the film, I think it’ll get the win.
Best Original Score 3 5 Alexandre Desplat – TGBH So good he was nominated twice. Although that didn’t work out for Roger Deakins
Best Cinematography 2 5 Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman. Roger Deakins – I say it every year, the man is a legend! Ryszars Lenczewski – Ida.  With an added bonus of seeing how the awarder pronounces his name
Costume Design  1 5 The Grand Budapest Hotel I’d be happy with this but loved the costuming in Belle/ and Lorraine Toussaint’s glasses in Selma
Makeup and Hairstyling 2 3 Foxcatcher  Although TGBH is a steady contender.  When I watched the Foxcatcher trailer it took me a while to realise Steve Carrell was in it!
Production Design 2 5 The Grand Budapest Hotel The Grand Budapest Hotel – such lovely detail
Sound Editing 2 5  Interstellar Not a clue about this
Sound Mixing 2 5  Whiplash  How could it not win?!
Visual Effects 4 5 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Apes on horses people!
Short Film, Live Action  0 5 Boogaloo and Graham Randomly selected – we all now your speech will be one of the best of the night – Shorts generally are
Short Film, Animated  0 5  Feast  As Above
Documentary Short Subject  0 5 Crisis Hotline As Above

So here we go! Bring it on Neil Patrick Harris, but please keep it short I have an early meeting! See you on the flipside.

ELC

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